Course Description
Learn how to estimate accident frequencies, system failure probabilities, and critical component importances.
How many failures should you expect over a 1-year period? What is the chance of system failure during the next week? What is the chance of not completing the repair job before the scheduled restart date? Do you have critical spare parts on hand? Which components are most critical to system operation? Most critical to maintain? If you need quantitative answers to questions like these, Course 201 will show you how to get them. You will learn to estimate in probabilistic terms the likelihood of a variety of types of system failures. You will also learn how to identify the systems, subsystems, and components that contribute the most to your loss exposure. You will leave the course with the skills to make more precise judgments than you can make with qualitative tools alone.
The first day provides the background and skills necessary to understand risk and reliability terminology and to use system-level tools such as fault tree, event tree, and layer of protection analysis (LOPA) to model the system-level failures of interest.
Day two focuses on calculating basic system reliability characteristics. Specifically, you will learn how to use component failure and human error data to estimate overall reliability characteristics for systems. You will learn to calculate system reliability, availability, expected number of failures, mean time to failure, and dependability. Measures of importance for determining the largest contributors to unreliable system performance will be reviewed. In workshops, you will apply the calculation methods to answer practical questions posed by engineering, maintenance, and operations departments.
Additional course topics (during the remaining two and half days of the course) include the collection and quantitative analysis of component and human error data at the basic event level. Basic statistics and probability theory necessary to appropriately characterize component failure rates and likelihoods will be demonstrated. Among the methods you will learn about is Weibull analysis. In addition, you will also learn how to obtain failure data from sources outside your company (e.g., sources of generic failure data).
You will learn ways of quantitatively estimating how often certain types of human errors will occur. You will learn basic human reliability theory and ways of characterizing how likely human errors are. You will also explore sources of quantitative human reliability data. The class summary includes a discussion and workshop involving the combination of frequency and consequence results to present risk.
Five reasons for you to attend:
Build on your knowledge of qualitative hazard evaluation methods to discover when and how to quantify the results Derive a clearer understanding of risks associated with your processes Learn to distinguish between cost-effective and costly solutions for your facility's risk or reliability concerns Gain a clear understanding of the most critical aspects of your processes Learn to develop fault trees and event trees and also to solve fault trees quantitatively
Four benefits you will gain:
You will leave the course able to objectively judge the value of system improvements You will be able to estimate the likelihood of rare, high-impact events You will be prepared to identify where system modifications are needed Come away from the course with these valuable materials: A copy of the comprehensive course notes Solutions to the example problems A certificate of completion 3.3 CEUs, 3.3 COCs, 4.0 CMs (ABIH approval #02-962)
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